Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 3,772 · March 31, 2015 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The day closes with the Perene Index at 53.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state55/100Today ▾ -32
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2014
    Ibovespa that day51,626 pts
    the archive suggested-3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months51,049 pts (-1%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2010
    Ibovespa 63,047 → 69,346 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 31 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +3.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2013Perene 55 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2003Perene 55
  3. March 31, 2017Perene 54 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2019Perene 54 · risk-on
  5. July 31, 2006Perene 54
  6. April 30, 2021Perene 56 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 51,150 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,772 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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