Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of December 31, 2016 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The Perene Index rose to 48.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state39/100Today ▲ +39
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite43/100Today ▲ +10
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2015
    Ibovespa that day45,120 pts
    the archive suggested-12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months50,488 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2015 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2012
    Ibovespa 56,097 → 58,951 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 73% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2012Perene 39 · risk-on
  2. April 30, 2022Perene 39 · defensive
  3. January 31, 2005Perene 40
  4. August 31, 2018Perene 40 · neutral
  5. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  6. May 31, 2005Perene 40
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 60,227 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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