Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 711 · April 30, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now neutral territory. The day closes with the Perene Index at 38. On the asset-class side, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state39/100Today ▾ -61
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2021
    Ibovespa that day126,802 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months103,922 pts (-18%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2017
    Ibovespa 62,900 → 77,995 pts (+24% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2012Perene 39 · risk-on
  2. December 31, 2016Perene 39 · defensive
  3. January 31, 2005Perene 40
  4. August 31, 2018Perene 40 · neutral
  5. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  6. May 31, 2005Perene 40
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is strong risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 107,876 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 711 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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