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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 1,260 · January 31, 2005 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to neutral ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 43.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state40/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 29, 2004
    Ibovespa that day22,499 pts
    what happened in 6 months22,869 pts (+2%)
    Reread the edition of February 29, 2004 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 9 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +11.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2010Perene 40 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2018Perene 40 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2005Perene 40
  4. October 31, 2012Perene 39 · risk-on
  5. December 31, 2016Perene 39 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2022Perene 39 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 24,351 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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