Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,433 · November 30, 2017 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The index reads 2 — capitulation territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state11/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite69/100Today ▲ +14
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2016
    Ibovespa that day61,906 pts
    the archive suggested+45% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months62,450 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2016 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2012
    Ibovespa 57,475 → 51,317 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2019Perene 11 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2006Perene 11
  3. March 31, 2020Perene 11 · risk-on
  4. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  5. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
  6. September 30, 2021Perene 13 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 71,971 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,433 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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