Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,008 · March 31, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The Perene Index settled at 10 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state11/100Today ▲ +5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite3/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2015
    Ibovespa that day47,651 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months50,011 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2015 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 100% · median +10.1%
  • 6M: higher 100% · median +22.4%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +32.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-06, 2018-05, 2019-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2019Perene 11 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2006Perene 11
  3. November 30, 2017Perene 11 · risk-on
  4. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  5. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
  6. September 30, 2021Perene 13 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +22.4% over six months, with 100% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 73,020 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,008 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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