Brazil market regime — 2021-09-30

In 5 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 80% of the time after 6 months (median +17%, central range 13.8% to 22.7%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 80% · median +3.5% · central range +2.1%…+17.7% (n=5)
• 6M: higher 80% · median +17% · central range +13.8%…+22.7% (n=5)
• 12M: higher 100% · median +27% · central range +17.1%…+32.4% (n=5)

5 independent episodes · e.g. 2017-06, 2018-05, 2020-03, 2017-05, 2018-09 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios