Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 5,380 · September 30, 2021 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 12. Mood stays depressed.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state13/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite9/100Today ▾ -25
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day94,603 pts
    the archive suggested+11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months117,670 pts (+24%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2016
    Ibovespa 61,906 → 62,450 pts (+1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +10.6%
  • 6M: higher 83% · median +19.9%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +27%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-06, 2018-05, 2020-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2014Perene 14 · neutral
  2. November 30, 2016Perene 14 · defensive
  3. February 28, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  4. February 28, 2010Perene 15
  5. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
  6. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +19.9% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 110,979 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,380 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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