Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,739 · February 28, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to neutral ground. The close took the Perene Index to 42.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state51/100Today ▾ -45
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite59/100Today ▾ -21
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2018
    Ibovespa that day84,913 pts
    the archive suggested+30% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months81,435 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2014
    Ibovespa 51,626 → 51,049 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 74% of the time — median +7.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 40% · median -1.6%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +7%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +21%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-07, 2018-02, 2017-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2024Perene 51 · neutral
  2. September 30, 2011Perene 51 · risk-on
  3. April 30, 2018Perene 51 · risk-on
  4. February 28, 2022Perene 52 · defensive
  5. March 31, 2000Perene 52
  6. January 31, 2018Perene 50 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 95,584 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,739 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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