Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of February 28, 2022 · Regime defensivo · for 28 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index fell to 60.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state52/100Today ▾ -27
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2021
    Ibovespa that day118,894 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months103,501 pts (-13%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2017
    Ibovespa 64,984 → 74,360 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 74% of the time — median +7.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 88% · median +7%
  • 6M: higher 100% · median +15.9%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +29.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-02, 2018-09, 2017-01 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2015Perene 52 · defensive
  2. March 31, 2000Perene 52
  3. June 30, 2001Perene 53
  4. February 28, 2019Perene 51 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2018Perene 51 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2024Perene 53 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +15.9% over six months, with 100% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 113,142 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · for 28 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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