Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,842 · July 31, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 56. By asset class, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state54/100Today ▾ -46
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite47/100Today ▾ -23
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2018
    Ibovespa that day78,624 pts
    the archive suggested+16% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months95,953 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2014
    Ibovespa 53,168 → 50,594 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 48 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 73% of the time — median +11% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2016Perene 54 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2015Perene 54 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2005Perene 54
  4. April 30, 2000Perene 54
  5. July 31, 2006Perene 54
  6. March 31, 2017Perene 54 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 101,812 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,842 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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