Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 508 · September 30, 2018 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

After several flat days, the day registered movement. The Perene Index marked 52 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state45/100Today ▾ -55
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite55/100Today ▾ -13
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2017
    Ibovespa that day62,900 pts
    what happened in 6 months77,995 pts (+24%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2013
    Ibovespa 52,338 → 51,082 pts (-2% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 42 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 88% · median +5.2%
  • 6M: higher 100% · median +16.3%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +27.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-09, 2016-02, 2017-05 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2010Perene 45 · broad risk-on
  2. August 31, 2001Perene 45
  3. August 31, 2025Perene 45 · defensive
  4. August 31, 2016Perene 45 · neutral
  5. August 31, 2010Perene 45 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2020Perene 44 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +16.3% over six months, with 100% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 79,342 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 508 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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