Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of August 31, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index stopped at 49.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state48/100Today ▲ +44
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite16/100Today ▲ +11
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2018
    Ibovespa that day76,678 pts
    the archive suggested+19% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,904 pts (+29%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2014
    Ibovespa 51,606 → 52,276 pts (+1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 52 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +9.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2008Perene 48
  2. May 31, 2014Perene 48 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2001Perene 48
  4. August 31, 2012Perene 48 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2016Perene 49 · defensive
  6. March 31, 2007Perene 47
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 101,135 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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