Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,137 · August 31, 2012 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The reading stays in neutral territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state48/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2011
    Ibovespa that day52,324 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months62,923 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2007
    Ibovespa 54,637 → 62,177 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 35 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +11.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2008Perene 48
  2. May 31, 2014Perene 48 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2001Perene 48
  4. August 31, 2019Perene 48 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2016Perene 49 · defensive
  6. March 31, 2007Perene 47
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 57,061 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,137 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory