Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of December 31, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to constructive ground. The close took the Perene Index to 78.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state79/100Today ▾ -21
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite79/100Today ▲ +17
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJuly 31, 2015
    Ibovespa that day50,865 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months40,592 pts (-20%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2015 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +2.7%
  • 6M: higher 83% · median +9.8%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +16.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-02, 2017-10, 2018-01 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2011Perene 79 · risk-on
  2. July 31, 2015Perene 79 · defensive
  3. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  4. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2000Perene 79
  6. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +9.8% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 115,964 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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