Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,462 · January 31, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The Perene Index rose to 84.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state79/100Today ▾ -19
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite49/100Today ▾ -8
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (79) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day64,671 pts
    the archive suggested+20% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months66,777 pts (+3%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2017 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 100% · median +2.6%
  • 6M: higher 100% · median +12.4%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +29.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-01, 2018-10, 2018-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2011Perene 79 · risk-on
  2. July 31, 2015Perene 79 · defensive
  3. December 31, 2019Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2000Perene 79
  6. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +12.4% over six months, with 100% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 112,388 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,462 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2022-01-28all editions · Observatory2022-02-28 · next edition →