Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,092 · July 31, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The index reads 78 — constructive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state72/100Today ▾ -28
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite41/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day118,573 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,937 pts (-17%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2015
    Ibovespa 50,865 → 40,592 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 52 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +5.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 50% · median -0.6%
  • 6M: higher 50% · median +1.6%
  • 12M: higher 89% · median +21%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-05, 2020-01, 2017-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2017Perene 72 · neutral
  2. August 31, 2002Perene 72
  3. October 31, 2001Perene 73
  4. August 31, 2004Perene 71
  5. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
  6. March 31, 2006Perene 71
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +1.6% over six months, with 50% positive episodes (n=12).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 102,912 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,092 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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