Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 445 · March 24, 2022 · reconstructed essentials

The market returned to an extreme, now the top of the scale. Today, the Perene Index closed at 100.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood54/100Today ▲ +11
how to read?
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day116,634 pts
    the archive suggested-2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months110,979 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2016
    Ibovespa 56,756 → 64,836 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 119,053 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2022-03-23all editions · Atlas2022-03-25 · next edition →