Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,731 · February 28, 2023 · Regime defensivo · for 59 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to defensive ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 26.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state28/100Today ▾ -16
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite27/100Today ▾ -41
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoMarch 31, 2018
    Ibovespa that day84,666 pts
    the archive suggested+30% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months78,624 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2018 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +11.7%
  • 6M: higher 83% · median +10.4%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +33.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-12, 2021-12, 2016-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  2. June 30, 2008Perene 28
  3. June 30, 2003Perene 28
  4. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  5. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
  6. January 31, 2013Perene 27 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +10.4% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 104,932 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,731 · Regime defensivo · for 59 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2023-01-31all editions · Observatory2023-03-23 · next edition →