Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,129 · September 30, 2024 · Regime defensivo · for 30 days · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Another day of pressure. The Perene Index settled at 30 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state27/100Today ▾ -37
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite31/100Today ▾ -29
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2019
    Ibovespa 104,745 → 69,538 pts (-34% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 64 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +7.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 78% · median +9%
  • 6M: higher 89% · median +7.8%
  • 12M: higher 86% · median +30.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-12, 2023-02, 2021-12 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2013Perene 27 · risk-on
  2. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  3. June 30, 2003Perene 28
  4. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  6. November 30, 2022Perene 26 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.8% over six months, with 89% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 131,816 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,129 · Regime defensivo · for 30 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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