Brazil market regime — 2024-09-30

In 9 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 89% of the time after 6 months (median +7.8%, central range 3.5% to 15.7%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 78% · median +9.3% · central range +4.2%…+11.2% (n=9)
• 6M: higher 89% · median +7.8% · central range +3.5%…+15.7% (n=9)
• 12M: higher 86% · median +22.6% · central range +17.2%…+31.8% (n=7)

9 independent episodes · e.g. 2016-12, 2016-02, 2023-02, 2021-11, 2022-03 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios