Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,762 · April 13, 2023 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now the top of the scale. The Perene Index marked 96 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state96/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite14/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day119,999 pts
    the archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months107,664 pts (-10%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2020Perene 96 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  3. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  4. February 29, 2012Perene 97 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  6. May 31, 2003Perene 94
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 106,458 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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