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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,815 · June 30, 2023 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The day's reading came in at 88.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state89/100Today ▾ -6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite69/100Today ▲ +18
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (89) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day111,351 pts
    the archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,486 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +5.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 58% · median +2.9%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +6.5%
  • 12M: higher 82% · median +22.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-07, 2017-01, 2022-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2022Perene 89 · defensive
  2. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  3. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  5. October 31, 2008Perene 88
  6. November 30, 2004Perene 88
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6.5% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=12).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 118,087 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,815 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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