Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,650 · October 31, 2022 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

A lighter day on the reading. The index reads 89 — stretched risk-on. Across asset classes, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state88/100Today ▲ +6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite75/100Today ▲ +22
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (88) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day112,388 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months103,362 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +10% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2008Perene 88
  2. November 30, 2004Perene 88
  3. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  4. June 30, 2019Perene 88 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2009Perene 88
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 116,037 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,650 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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