Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition of December 31, 2023 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

A lighter day on the reading. The session ended with the Perene at 96.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state90/100Today ▾ -6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▾ -9
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day116,037 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months105,148 pts (-9%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2018
    Ibovespa 91,012 → 104,089 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 69% · median +3.1%
  • 6M: higher 69% · median +10.4%
  • 12M: higher 67% · median +5.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2018-10, 2018-08, 2017-01 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2014Perene 90 · neutral
  2. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
  3. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
  4. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  5. May 31, 2022Perene 89 · defensive
  6. January 31, 2019Perene 92 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +10.4% over six months, with 69% positive episodes (n=13).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 134,185 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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