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Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 5,920 · November 30, 2023 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to neutral ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 65.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state67/100Today ▾ -33
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▲ +4
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day102,225 pts
    the archive suggested-2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months113,532 pts (+11%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2018
    Ibovespa 79,220 → 94,636 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000
    Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 62% · median +0.9%
  • 6M: higher 85% · median +6.4%
  • 12M: higher 67% · median +21.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2018-10, 2017-01, 2016-09 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2007Perene 67
  2. July 31, 2018Perene 67 · neutral
  3. September 30, 2004Perene 67
  4. January 31, 2003Perene 68
  5. June 30, 2007Perene 66
  6. August 31, 2014Perene 68 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6.4% over six months, with 85% positive episodes (n=13).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 127,331 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,920 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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