Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of July 31, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The prevailing mood stays neutral. Today, the Perene Index closed at 66. On the sector side, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state65/100Today ▾ -32
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite47/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2021
    Ibovespa that day118,894 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months103,501 pts (-13%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2017
    Ibovespa 65,920 → 84,041 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000
    Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →

In 52 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2001Perene 66
  2. October 31, 2000Perene 64
  3. January 31, 2002Perene 66
  4. August 31, 2024Perene 64 · defensive
  5. June 30, 2007Perene 66
  6. December 31, 2010Perene 64 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 103,165 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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