Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,922 · December 4, 2023 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index rose to the high end of the scale, now at 89. The market's disposition stays neutral.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state89/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite57/100Today ▾ -7
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day116,037 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months105,148 pts (-9%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2019
    Ibovespa 97,394 → 100,098 pts (+3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +3.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2022Perene 89 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  4. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  6. October 31, 2008Perene 88
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 126,803 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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