Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,975 · February 22, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The Perene Index rose to 71.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state71/100Today ▲ +20
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite47/100Today ▲ +4
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day101,882 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months115,057 pts (+13%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2018
    Ibovespa 79,220 → 94,636 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2004Perene 71
  2. March 31, 2006Perene 71
  3. July 31, 2020Perene 72 · risk-on
  4. August 31, 2002Perene 72
  5. February 28, 2017Perene 72 · neutral
  6. December 31, 2004Perene 70
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 130,241 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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