Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,313 · July 1, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

A lighter day on the reading. The Perene Index marked 96 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state96/100Today ▲ +20
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite81/100Today ▾ -11
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJune 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day95,056 pts
    the archive suggested+11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months118,558 pts (+25%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2020 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2020Perene 96 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  3. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  4. February 29, 2012Perene 97 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  6. May 31, 2003Perene 94
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 139,549 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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