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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,312 · June 30, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session improved the market's mood. The index reads 77 — constructive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state76/100Today ▾ -18
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite92/100Today ▲ +13
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (76) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJuly 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day102,912 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months119,925 pts (+17%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2020 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2008Perene 76
  2. August 31, 2017Perene 77 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2025Perene 77 · defensive
  4. February 28, 2006Perene 75
  5. February 28, 2005Perene 75
  6. March 31, 2011Perene 74 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 138,855 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,312 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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