Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,433 · December 17, 2025 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The mood worsened for the third straight session. The day closes with the Perene Index at 0.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite41/100Today ▾ -2

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●Five years agoOctober 31, 2020
Ibovespa that day95,587 pts
the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months119,710 pts (+25%)
Reread the edition of October 31, 2020 →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +1.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 157,327 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2025-12-16all editions · Atlas2025-12-19 · next edition →