Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,436 · December 22, 2025 · reconstructed essentials

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The day's reading came in at 0.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood49/100Today ▾ -23
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoOctober 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day95,587 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months119,710 pts (+25%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2020 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 158,142 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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