Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,444 · January 7, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to defensive ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 29.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state29/100Today ▲ +16
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2025
    Ibovespa that day122,799 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months140,335 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2021
    Ibovespa 117,365 → 121,801 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2009Perene 30
  2. June 30, 2008Perene 28
  3. January 31, 2008Perene 30
  4. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  5. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2009Perene 30
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 161,975 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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