Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of January 31, 2021 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to defensive ground. The close took the Perene Index to 30. By asset class, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state38/100Today ▾ -60
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite48/100Today ▾ -16
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day113,761 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months101,216 pts (-11%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2015
    Ibovespa 45,120 → 50,488 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 58% · median +3.5%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +13.5%
  • 12M: higher 89% · median +12.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-11, 2019-05, 2017-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2006Perene 38
  2. June 30, 2024Perene 38 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2000Perene 38
  4. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  5. September 30, 2025Perene 38 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2019Perene 38 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +13.5% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=12).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 116,007 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2021-01-14all editions · Observatory2021-02-02 · next edition →