Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,232 · February 28, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The day closes with the Perene Index at 30.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state31/100Today ▾ -69
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite41/100Today ▾ -35
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day124,718 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months120,283 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2020
    Ibovespa 80,506 → 96,582 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 64 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +2.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 78% · median +6.8%
  • 6M: higher 89% · median +5.5%
  • 12M: higher 88% · median +15.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-12, 2023-10, 2024-07 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2012Perene 31 · risk-on
  2. July 31, 2003Perene 31
  3. June 30, 2021Perene 31 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2009Perene 30
  5. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.5% over six months, with 89% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 122,799 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,232 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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