Brazil market regime — 2025-02-28

In 9 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 89% of the time after 6 months (median +5.5%, central range 1.7% to 9.5%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 78% · median +6.8% · central range +3%…+10.5% (n=9)
• 6M: higher 89% · median +5.5% · central range +1.7%…+9.5% (n=9)
• 12M: higher 88% · median +15.2% · central range +10.2%…+21.6% (n=8)

9 independent episodes · e.g. 2022-12, 2023-10, 2024-07, 2022-06, 2021-12 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios