Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,451 · January 16, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index gave back ground and closed at 30. The picture stays on a upbeat mood.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state30/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite68/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2025
    Ibovespa that day122,799 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months140,335 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2021
    Ibovespa 117,365 → 121,801 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 65 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +2.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2008Perene 30
  2. December 31, 2009Perene 30
  3. August 31, 2009Perene 30
  4. July 31, 2012Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2025Perene 31 · defensive
  6. July 31, 2003Perene 31
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 164,800 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-01-13all editions · Observatory2026-01-19 · next edition →