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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of January 31, 2026 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index fell to 56.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state54/100Today ▾ -31
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite72/100Today ▾ -12
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day134,981 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months125,035 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2020
    Ibovespa 108,888 → 129,787 pts (+19% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 69 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +7.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 71% · median +1.9%
  • 6M: higher 76% · median +6.4%
  • 12M: higher 75% · median +15.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-06, 2016-08, 2023-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2016Perene 54 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2015Perene 54 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2005Perene 54
  4. April 30, 2000Perene 54
  5. July 31, 2019Perene 54 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2006Perene 54
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6.4% over six months, with 76% positive episodes (n=17).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 181,364 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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