Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,174 · November 30, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index marked 57 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state58/100Today ▾ -42
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite64/100Today ▲ +15
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day101,812 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months113,761 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2015
    Ibovespa 42,141 → 51,902 pts (+23% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +8.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +4.4%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +6.4%
  • 12M: higher 67% · median +8.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2018-01, 2019-07, 2019-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2005Perene 58
  2. November 30, 2025Perene 58 · neutral
  3. February 29, 2024Perene 58 · neutral
  4. May 31, 2016Perene 58 · neutral
  5. June 30, 2015Perene 58 · defensive
  6. November 30, 2001Perene 58
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6.4% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 108,888 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,174 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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