Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 848 · August 31, 2024 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Today, the Perene Index closed at 66.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state64/100Today ▾ -36
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite61/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day127,331 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,407 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2019
    Ibovespa 101,812 → 113,761 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000
    Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +7.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 62% · median +0.6%
  • 6M: higher 69% · median +4.5%
  • 12M: higher 91% · median +11.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-10, 2023-01, 2022-05 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2010Perene 64 · risk-on
  2. October 31, 2000Perene 64
  3. January 31, 2009Perene 64
  4. July 31, 2022Perene 65 · defensive
  5. February 29, 2016Perene 63 · defensive
  6. March 31, 2023Perene 63 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.5% over six months, with 69% positive episodes (n=13).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 136,004 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 848 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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