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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of February 28, 2026 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The Perene Index stopped at 32.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state28/100Today ▾ -52
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite60/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2025
    Ibovespa that day122,799 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months140,335 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2021
    Ibovespa 110,335 → 119,740 pts (+9% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 72 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +7%
  • 6M: higher 71% · median +8.2%
  • 12M: higher 92% · median +12.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2025-07, 2023-08, 2022-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  2. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2008Perene 28
  4. June 30, 2003Perene 28
  5. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  6. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8.2% over six months, with 71% positive episodes (n=14).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 188,787 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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