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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,609 · September 3, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 95 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The day closes with the Perene Index at 100. On the sector side, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite49/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move74/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 49) and recent move (74) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +3.2%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-03, 2013-10, 2014-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 185,188 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,609 · Regime defensivo · for 95 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-09-02all editions · Observatory