Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,610 · September 4, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 96 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The Perene Index marked 99 at the close. At the ends of the index, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state99/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite47/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move67/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 47) and recent move (67) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 68% · median +2.8%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +6%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +3.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-03, 2013-10, 2014-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2009Perene 99
  2. May 31, 2011Perene 99 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2001Perene 98
  4. December 31, 2000Perene 100
  5. June 30, 2020Perene 100 · risk-on
  6. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 185,147 pts, +31.9% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,610 · Regime defensive · for 96 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-09-03all editions · Observatory