Brazil market regime

Edition no. 2,750 · February 10, 2011 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index moved in extreme risk-off, now at 7. The backdrop remains in extreme risk-off.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state7/100Today ▲ +4

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoFebruary 28, 2010
Ibovespa that day67,228 pts
what happened in 6 months64,261 pts (-4%)
Reread the edition of February 28, 2010 →
○Five years agoMay 2006
Ibovespa 36,530 → 41,327 pts (+13% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 25 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 64,578 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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