Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 2,868 · August 2, 2011 · reconstructed essentials

The session put the Perene Index back at 2. The environment stays anchored to a defensive extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state2/100Today ▾ -13
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2010
    Ibovespa that day67,530 pts
    what happened in 6 months70,673 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2010 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2006
    Ibovespa 36,530 → 41,327 pts (+13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 26 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  2. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  4. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  5. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  6. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 57,311 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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