Brazil market regime

Edition no. 2,899 · September 15, 2011 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index moved at an appetite extreme, now at 93. The configuration remains at an appetite extreme.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state93/100Today ▾ -6

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoOctober 31, 2010
Ibovespa that day71,561 pts
what happened in 6 months64,622 pts (-10%)
Reread the edition of October 31, 2010 →
○Five years agoNovember 2006
Ibovespa 41,932 → 52,049 pts (+24% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 28 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 56,381 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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