Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,019 · March 14, 2012 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index rose to the high end of the scale, now at 94. The scene holds at an appetite extreme.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▾ -6

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoApril 30, 2011
Ibovespa that day65,463 pts
the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months59,513 pts (-9%)
Reread the edition of April 30, 2011 →
○Five years agoDecember 2006
Ibovespa 45,383 → 55,932 pts (+23% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 27 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +7.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 68,257 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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