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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,335 · July 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood worsened. The Perene Index rose to 19.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state18/100Today ▲ +17
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite39/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day131,816 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months127,256 pts (-3%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2020
    Ibovespa 80,506 → 96,582 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 70% of the time — median +10.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 85% · median +6.5%
  • 6M: higher 85% · median +4.2%
  • 12M: higher 80% · median +14.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-11, 2016-12, 2024-06 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2005Perene 18
  2. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  3. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  4. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2024Perene 16 · defensive
  6. January 31, 2015Perene 16 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.2% over six months, with 85% positive episodes (n=13).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 133,071 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,335 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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