Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,885 · September 30, 2019 · Regime risk_on · for 30 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day closed as it had opened.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state21/100Today ▾ -27
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite42/100Today ▲ +26
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2018
    Ibovespa that day77,240 pts
    the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months88,624 pts (+15%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2014
    Ibovespa 54,116 → 53,737 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +9.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
  3. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  4. November 30, 2024Perene 23 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  6. September 30, 2001Perene 23
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 104,745 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,885 · Regime risk_on · for 30 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2019-08-31all editions · Observatory2019-10-08 · next edition →