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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of September 30, 2023 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop remains neutral.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state20/100Today ▲ +20
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite45/100Today ▲ +11
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2022
    Ibovespa that day112,486 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,558 pts (+0%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2018
    Ibovespa 77,240 → 88,624 pts (+15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 67% · median +6.8%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +2.3%
  • 12M: higher 80% · median +13%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-11, 2016-11, 2021-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
  3. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  4. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  5. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
  6. April 30, 2005Perene 18
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.3% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 116,565 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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