Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,251 · February 25, 2013 · reconstructed essentials

The market returned to an extreme, now extreme risk-off. The index reads 10 — extreme risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state10/100Today ▲ +10
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2012
    Ibovespa that day54,490 pts
    the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months57,563 pts (+6%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2012 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2007
    Ibovespa 54,183 → 59,076 pts (+9% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 30 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  2. March 31, 2020Perene 11 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2017Perene 11 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2019Perene 11 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2006Perene 11
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 56,618 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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