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Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of December 31, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

A day of continuity: the market's state changed little.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state74/100
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2012
    Ibovespa that day62,550 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months45,210 pts (-28%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2012 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2009
    Ibovespa 36,235 → 55,815 pts (+54% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 41 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 40% · median -1.3%
  • 6M: higher 20% · median -8%
  • 12M: higher 25% · median -12.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2012-01, 2012-06, 2012-09 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2012Perene 74 · risk-on
  2. June 30, 2009Perene 74
  3. March 31, 2025Perene 74 · defensive
  4. March 31, 2011Perene 74 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2006Perene 75
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -8% over six months, with 20% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 51,507 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory